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An Introduction to the Energy Economics
Abstract and Figures
The impact of energy on the economic growth and development of countries has made energy the center and core of many studies in academic and academic communities. Endless sources of energy, such as fossil fuels (oil, gas, and etc.), have been in geological evolution for many years, and their reserves are fixed and will not be renewed after exploitation. So the key question is, what should be the optimal way to extract end-time energy sources over time? It also deals with scientific issues in energy economics, economic challenges, and policymaking related to energy issues. The increasing consumption of fossil fuels has caused environmental issues and problems, and the importance and need for other energy sources have been taken into consideration. These energies, known as renewable and renewable energies, have been put to use instead of fossil fuels. Generally, energy issues are presented using models and economic analysis, policy application, and practical solutions. This book presents the Introduction to Fossil fuel or non-renewable energy economics.
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Iran holding 153.8 billion barrels of crude oil with a share of 9.3 percent and 33.5 billion cubic meters of gas with 18 percent share of oil and gas reservoirs are among the world's most important oil and gas producing countries. Hydrocarbon reservoirs are one of the most important competitive advantages of Iran, along with a specific geographic location. In the social and economic structure of Iran, the oil has a special place. In a context where dynamic and permanent variables are changing, and uncertainty is high, the use of scenarios for long-term horizons is beneficial and useful for strategic planning and policymaking. In this study, the future of Iranian oil and gas industries is being studied in four scenarios using the hybrid foresight methodology and the Iranian seventh progress plan strategies to enhance their accuracy. The noted scenarios are the most probable future pathway for the Iranian oil and gas industry.
Common vision consists of four components and dimensions such as strategic intents, aim, and target (the philosophy of developing a system), logic and the core values. Common vision could be deployed in different organizations and various communities, macro or micro scales, individual or organizational levels, and the state or regional utilizations. The methodology applied for model designing in this paper is based on the researches of three integrated interactive coupling layers including the ideals, core values, and environmental strategic challenges and factors, along with existing and /or emerging dominant intellectual views that cause a paradigm change, insights, and approaches. The innovative aspect of the model is that the layers have modular interactions and coupling with each other and the output of each layer is related to and effect on the next which eventually indicates the strategic challenges as a combination of the layer vectors of the three sectors of the model which leads to the recognition of strategic challenges of the system. Afterward, the resolution of the vision is prepared based on strategic challenges resulting from the model. It is noteworthy to mention that this very model of challenges has become the basis of designing. Introduction The complex nature and high uncertainty of the future challenges the ability of countries to plan and develop sustainable, as time goes by and happens changes in the environment, this becomes more complex and challenging. (Cameron and Potvin, 2016; Wilkinson, 2012) future is also facing an increase in uncertainty and unpredictable changes and challenges. (Banister and Hickman, 2013) state that integration and merge of the trends, plus technological, cultural, economic, social and political notions on different levels, would cause the appearance of new phenomena, develop complicated and uncertain conditions and provide highly sensitive, multi-dimensional situations. As the patterns of global and national development change,
Today's world is encountering with Water, Energy and Climate change crisis, population growth and environmental disasters such as greenhouse gases and global warming have, created an ever-increasing need for water and energy sources, that all of them are projected and determined in energy crisis and global Total comparative outlook of energy, helps for encountering the world's urgent condition thus planning new strategies and ways of interaction and technologies like energy audit, electrical transportation and renewable sources of power can help us in this matter of interact with this crisis that is leading us to unpleasant condition. In this paper a new comparative outlook "CO" over the world's 2030 energy portfolio and analytic effects of energy over the water reservoirs and climate change is discussed in a comparative and analytic literature method, the "CO" is output of analytic compare of International Energy Agency "IEA", Shell, British Petroleum "BP", World Energy Council "WEC" and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "IPCC", unlike the others, in this paper energy is considered as the set of all world's important factors that are affected by energy and effect on it too and it is tried to mention this effects along the status of energy in 2030.
In order to analyse long-term viable solutions for future energy supply, transparent and robust energy scenarios are needed. These require including diverse expertise as well as thoroughly analysing the option space and considering stakeholders’ interests. We propose that using Morphological Fields in inter- and transdisciplinary project groups is appropriate and show how this can be translated into practice for the development of regional scenarios. Besides the technical tools developed to create scenarios, interactively visualise assumptions and allow for scenario variations, a combination of morphological fields is presented that includes the basic scenario definition with respect to main sustainability criteria together with the basic assumptions for each respective technology. The first usage of the methodology in the project EnAHRgie illustrates its applicability in practice.
Today’s world is encountering with Water, Energy and Climate change crisis, population growth and environmental disasters such as greenhouse gases and global warming have, created an ever-increasing need for water and energy sources, that all of them are projected and determined in energy crisis and global Total comparative outlook of energy, helps for encountering the world’s urgent condition thus planning new strategies and ways of interaction and technologies like energy audit, electrical transportation and renewable sources of power can help us in this matter of interact with this crisis that is leading us to unpleasant condition. In this paper a new comparative outlook CO over the world’s 2030 energy portfolio and analytic effects of energy over the water reservoirs and climate change is discussed in a comparative and analytic literature method, the CO is output of analytic compare of International Energy Agency IEA , Shell, British Petroleum BP , World Energy Council WEC and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , unlike the others, in this paper energy is considered as the set of all world’s important factors that are affected by energy and effect on it too and it is tried to mention this effects along the status of energy in 2030.
Compared to the conventional methods, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are considered to be one of the reliable tools for modeling of complex phenomena such as demand. Aim of this study is to provide a model for gasoline demand in transportation section of Tehran metropolis through multilayered perceptron neural network and using the presented model in analyzing the sensitivity of the model to the input variables and forecasting gasoline demand. Seven social and economic indicators are considered on a monthly basis within 2010-2018: fuel price, population, median household income, Gini coefficient, hybrid/gasoline cars ratio, price index of goods and services, and average vehicles lifetime. The average percent error 3.8% and 4.6% for the training and test data were obtained respectively. Sensitivity analysis results showed that, hybrid/gasoline cars ratio (í µí± í µí±6 í µí°¹ ̅̅̅̅ = −2.580), population of Tehran (í µí± í µí±1 í µí°¹ ̅̅̅̅ = 1.596) and average lifetime of the vehicles (í µí± í µí±7 í µí°¹ ̅̅̅̅ = 0.698) have greater influence on gasoline demand in transportation section. Fuel consumption was predicted by three different scenarios of moderate, pessimistic and optimistic by 2022. The prediction results showed that in case of the continuation of the current trend of the descriptive variables of the model, gasoline demand in Tehran transportation section will be increased by 2022.
The scenario analysis focuses on two metropolitan regions of eastern China which are characterized by high energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. Current policies are rather short-term driven and weak regarding sectoral coupling and regional integration. As in China economic activities and population on the one hand and renewable energy resources on the other have a very imbalanced distribution, long-term integrated energy system modelling needs to consider specific regional challenges of efficiency improvement, coal reduction, transport decarbonization and multi-sector electrification. Three scenarios are constructed, namely a Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Natural Gas & Nuclear Scenario (NGNS) and Renewable & Import Scenario (RIS) based on a normative storyline-and-modelling approach. The simulation results show that regional CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced in all sectors with the adjustment of economic structure, adopted efficiency measures, fuels to replace coal and oil products and multi-sector electrification supported by enhanced power import capacity. The scenario analysis provides insights for a strategic implementation of long-term integrated energy transition options towards decarbonization for metropolitan regions both from supply and demand sides. Keywords: Energy system transition, Renewable energy, Eastern China, Scenario analysis, CO2 targets, Regional integration
The exploration and evaluation of strategies for decarbonizing the energy system is the subject of a series of national and international studies conducted by governmental, industrial and independent stakeholders. These studies play an important role in the energy policy debate on understanding and assessing different transformation paths of the energy system, technology options and their implications. They support strategic decisions on the type and scale of investments in the energy system under uncertain future conditions. However, in recent years the increasing complexity of these studies lead to a decreasing transparency even though their transparency and traceability is important for society, politics, research, and industry.In this article, three energy scenarios at different regional scales are reviewed according to their compliance with our pre-defined criteria of transparency. They are analysed in detail with regard to their objectives, methods, data used, results obtained and traceability. Our comparison shows that the results are often presented sufficiently in order to inform decision makers. However, the underlying model-based methods lack information on data exchange between the models, the transparent description of model couplings and a discussion on the rationality of method selection and the strengths and weaknesses of the applied approaches. Based on our findings, we present some general advice for energy scenario developers on how to ensure transparency and traceability in future energy scenario studies. Keywords: Energy scenario, Transparency, Reproducibility, Modelling approach, Impact
The current transition towards a low-carbon energy system requires an increasingly complex energy system framework. This is accompanied by the demand for high result reproducibility in order to provide transparency to decision-makers in terms of assumptions and methodological issues. Given this background, Open Access Models (OAMs) are increasingly entering the market that already have a high degree of diversity. This study analyses and compares the methodological framework of different OAMs to assess long-term energy scenarios. In a first step, selected OAMs are typified and characterised based on predefined criteria. In general, the analysis reveals that OAMs with a high level of accessibility appear to have a rather low level of complexity and often focus on the analysis of a single target year. In a second step, we underline our findings of the model overview by applying a well-established OAM (DESSTinEE-Demand for Energy Services, Supply and Transmission in EuropE) to a current energy scenario for Germany. Overall, we conclude that current OAMs can already be applied to a large variety of research questions. However, comparing OAMs to conventional models applied in the field of energy system analysis reveals that there is still a significant performance gap in terms of the degree of methodological sophistication.
In the late 50s a debate on the Oil depletion has been started which is continuing to the present day. Campbell largely updated Hubert’s model with new reserve resources forecast and estimated that the world’s oil production would peak around the 2004-2006 and then would decline over the years. Then was Campbell who proposed the term which was later widely used as the “The peak Oil” to define the global maximum of the Oil production Time series. In this paper a scenario planning based on the expert-choices (participated by the OPEC experts and policy makers) combined with the Hubert’s forecast method (based on the Monte-Carlo non-linear forecast Regression) is done for the peak-oil forecasting and three high score scenarios have been derived. The “True me”, the “feigned sleep” and the death of the unity in which these scenarios are highly affected by the political environments of each. However, in one of the scenarios because of the tensions in the political environment the peak oil will not occur by 2040 but the other scenarios show that peak oil maybe is sooner than the world expects (the mid-2020s) and energy supply and demand markets must be ready for this phenomena.
The central objective of this work was to test and determine the causality between the selected economic indicators such as TRADE, FDI, Oil Price and GDP in Nigeria and make a recommendation for a timely policy framework for the betterment of the Nigerian economy. Using Nigerian annual data of 1970–2018 with the application of Granger causality test, we found a unidirectional causality that runs from Oil Price to both FDI and TRADE and from FDI to TRADE. There was no causal effect transmitting from either TRADE to Oil Price or TRADE to FDI. Also, there was no transmission of causality from growth (GDP) to any of the selected indicators. Our findings expose the heavy influence of oil via price on the economic performance of Nigeria. This could justify the claim that there is a positive relationship between Oil Price and growth. Hence, supporting the findings that FDI is attracted by the availability of oil and the FDI will turn around influenced the rate of TRADE via TRADE openness. This is will create avenue for a virtuous economic growth circle if policy implication is managed well.